Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO Ask Lands in a Tightening Credit Market

We build on top of a handful of AI labs, and one of them is about to find out what public markets think it’s worth. Anthropic pushed its IPO from October to November after its confidential prospectus leaked ahead of schedule. The reported target is a $2 trillion valuation, roughly double the $965 billion it was valued at in May. Disclosure: Anthropic’s models are among those we build with, so read this with that in mind.

What the leaked numbers say

Per the Motley Fool’s report:

• $4.6 billion in 2025 revenue, a 12x jump from 2024.
• $42 billion net loss.
• $500 billion+ in planned infrastructure spending over the coming years.
• About a quarter of revenue comes from two customers, and many of the largest customers have no long-term contracts.

The same report notes OpenAI has reportedly ruled out any 2026 IPO. Other AI-adjacent infrastructure offerings are stalling too, according to Forbes: SB Energy pulled its offering after failing to find buyers at a $50 billion valuation, Holtec indefinitely postponed, citing “an unusual confluence of developments that has impaired investor confidence,” and Aggreko slowed its process.

The bear case, in numbers

Forbes lists seven stress signals it describes as currently observable:

• Borrowing costs: CoreWeave’s August term loan priced 100–125 basis points above original guidance, at a 10.4% rate. SoftBank issued $11.1 billion in junk bonds at 8.625% and 9.75%.
• Credit spreads: CDS spreads are rising on Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, Oracle, SpaceX and Broadcom. Alphabet’s hit a record in July.
• Rates: 5-year Treasury yields topped 5% for the first time since 2007, and 30-year yields hit their highest since 2004.
• Private credit: Apollo, Blackstone and Blue Owl have each capped withdrawals at roughly 5% while redemption requests ran 10–22%.
• Politics and power: Texas Governor Greg Abbott halted new data-center permits in September, and Oracle invoked force majeure on a New Mexico project. Diesel prices are at records.

One analyst cited by Forbes estimates $1.4 trillion of “hidden” AI earnings expectations are priced into markets. If only half materializes, the model implies a roughly 20% S&P 500 decline, about $14.7 trillion. Junk-rated debt maturities are projected to jump from about $57 billion in 2026 to $215 billion in 2028.

Capital Economics goes further. Its house call is a decline of more than 30% in the S&P 500 starting in 2027, modeled on the 1999–2000 tightening-into-crash sequence. It projects hyperscalers’ combined free cash flow turning negative in 2027.

The counter-argument

Not everyone agrees. As summarized in the same Fortune piece and the briefing, Goldman Sachs says U.S. tech isn’t in a bubble: valuations are below dot-com peaks, and the Magnificent Seven still generate large free cash flow, buy back stock and pay dividends. Goldman’s bigger worry is the gap between public and private valuations, which is exactly what Anthropic’s ask tests. Morgan Stanley’s CIO calls it “silly season” rather than a bubble and says AI buildout is “mostly rate-insensitive.” Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has taken a hawkish line while arguing financial conditions aren’t yet restrictive. That is the setup Capital Economics says preceded the dot-com unwind.

What it means for builders

Nobody here knows how the IPO prices. A float near $2 trillion would read as a win for the bulls. A priced-down or delayed listing would give the bears their clearest data point yet. For anyone shipping on these APIs, the practical exposure isn’t Anthropic’s stock price. It’s whether the labs’ capital costs and customer concentration change pricing, terms or availability downstream. The leading indicators to watch are the next debt raises from CoreWeave, SoftBank and other infrastructure borrowers, and the private-credit redemption gates. Both tend to move before equities do.